Economic Indicators
| Realizations | 2010 Forecast | Latest 2 Realizations | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | 2008 | 2009F | Garanti | Govern. | Q2 '09 | Q3 '09 |
| GDP (TL billion, nominal prices) | 950 | 950 | 1.073 | 1.029 | 229 | 262 |
| GDP (US$ billion) | 742 | 615 | 693 | 641 | 146 | 174 |
| GDP per capita (US$) | 10.436 | 8.472 | 9.417 | 8.821 | - | - |
| GDP growth rate (%) | 0,9 | -5,8 | 3,8 | 3,5 | -7,9 | -3,3 |
| Industrial Production | 2008 | 2009 | Garanti | Govern. | 12.2009 | 01.2010 |
| Industrial Production (YoY, %) | -0,9 | -9,6 | - | - | 25,3 | 12,1 |
| Capacity Utilization Rate (%) | 75,2 | 65,0 | - | - | 67,6 | 67,8 |
| Inflation | 2008 | 2009 | Garanti | Govern. | 01.2010 | 02.2010 |
| CPI (YoY, %) | 10,1 | 6,5 | 6,8 | 5,9 | 8,19 | 10,13 |
| PPI (YoY, %) | 8,1 | 5,9 | - | - | 6,30 | 6,82 |
| Deflator | 11,5 | - | 6,1 | 6,0 | - | - |
| Interest Rates | 2008 | 2009 | Garanti | Govern. | 01.2010 | 02.2010 |
| Benchmark bond (Average, %) | 16,0 | 11,7 | 9,3 | - | 8,7 | 8,9 |
| Primary (Discounted Auctions-Average, %) | 19,1 | 11,4 | - | - | 8,0 | 8,0 |
| Dom. Borrowing Cash Maturity (Month) | 31,2 | 35,7 | - | - | 38,6 | 37,6 |
| O/N (average, %) | 19,3 | 9,2 | 6,7 | - | 6,5 | 6,5 |
| Eurobond (2030, Yield, %) | 7,7 | 6,4 | - | - | 6,5 | 6,5 |
| Foreign Currency | 2008 | 2009 | Garanti | Govern. | 01.2010 | 02.2010 |
| Basket (0.5*US$+0.5*Euro, end of period) | 1,8266 | 1,8150 | 1,89 | - | 1,7834 | 1,8087 |
| EURO/US$ (end of period) | 1,42 | 1,44 | 1,35 | - | 1,40 | 1,35 |
| US$/TL (average) | 1,2929 | 1,5448 | 1,55 | 1,61 | 1,4663 | 1,5056 |
| US$/TL (end of period) | 1,5123 | 1,4873 | 1,60 | - | 1,4850 | 1,5400 |
| Euro/TL (end of period) | 2,1408 | 2,1427 | 2,17 | - | 2,0818 | 2,0774 |
| Balance of Payments (US$ million) | 2008 | 2009 | Garanti | Govern. | 11.2009 | 12.2009 |
| Exports (f.o.b.) | 132.027 | 102.165 | 117.900 | 107.500 | 8.906 | 10.062 |
| Imports (c.i.f.) | 201.964 | 140.776 | 164.400 | 153.000 | 12.616 | 14.989 |
| Current Account Balance | -41.947 | -13.854 | -25.200 | -18.000 | -1.807 | -3.217 |
| Current Account Balance/GDP (%) | -5,7 | - | -3,6 | -2,8 | - | - |
| Tourism Revenue | 21.951 | 21.250 | - | 22.500 | 1.442 | 1.105 |
| Foreign Direct Investment (Net) | 15.720 | 6.026 | - | - | 244 | -133 |
| Capital Account Balance | 36.294 | 5.417 | - | - | 875 | 1.070 |
| Debt Stock | 2008 | 2009F | Garanti | Govern. | Q2 '09 | Q3 '09 |
| EU Defined Debt Stock/GDP | 39,5% | 47,3% | 48,9% | 49,0% | 43,1% | 45,3% |
| Total External Debt Stock/GDP | 37,4% | - | - | - | 42,0% | 45,5% |
| Public/GDP | 12,4% | - | - | - | 14,3% | 16,2% |
| Private/GDP | 25,0% | - | - | - | 27,7% | 29,3% |
| Short-term/GDP | 6,8% | - | - | - | 7,6% | 8,2% |
| Long-term/GDP | 30,5% | - | - | - | 34,4% | 37,3% |
| Reserves (US$ million) | 2008 | 2009 | Garanti | Govern. | 01.2010 | 02.2010 |
| Total Foreign Reserves | 73.346 | 74.810 | - | - | 74.899 | 71.842 |
| Central Bank Reserves | 70.075 | 70.689 | - | - | 70.778 | 67.721 |
| CB Net FX Position | 36.213 | 37.182 | - | - | 35.253 | 33.351 |
| Monetary Aggregates (US$ billion) | 2008 | 2009 | Garanti | Govern. | 12.2009 | 01.2010 |
| M1 | 38,2 | 47,1 | - | - | 47,1 | 45,7 |
| M2 | 186,5 | 211,0 | - | - | 211,0 | 213,7 |
| M2Y | 271,1 | 303,3 | - | - | 303,3 | 307,3 |
| M3Y | 283,5 | 320,7 | - | - | 320,7 | 325,0 |
| Central Government Budget (TL billion) | 2008 | 2009 | Garanti | Govern. | 12.2009 | 01.2010 |
| Revenues | 208,9 | 215,1 | - | 236,8 | 21,9 | 19,5 |
| Expenditures | 226,0 | 267,3 | - | 286,9 | 27,7 | 22,6 |
| Interest Payments | 50,7 | 53,2 | - | 56,8 | 1,0 | 6,1 |
| Budget Balance | -17,1 | -52,2 | - | -50,1 | -5,9 | -3,1 |
| Primary Balance | 33,6 | 1,0 | - | 6,6 | -4,8 | 3,0 |
| C.G. Domestic Debt Stock | 274,8 | 330,0 | - | - | 330,0 | 335,9 |
| Central Government Debt Stock (%) | 2007 | 2008 | Garanti | Govern. | Q2 '09 | Q3 '09 |
| C.G. Domestic Debt Stock/GDP | 30,3 | 28,9 | - | - | 32,3 | 34,3 |
| C.G. External Debt Stock/GDP | 10,3 | 9,4 | - | - | 10,9 | 12,4 |
| Gross Total Public Debt Stock/GDP | 42,2 | 42,9 | - | - | 46,5 | 48,8 |
| Net Total Public Debt Stock/GDP | 29,5 | 28,2 | - | - | 30,5 | 32,4 |
Source: TURKSTAT, CBT, Ministry of Finance, Treasury, State Planning Organization and GarantiBank
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